Last Friday's non-farm payroll numbers came in much better than anticipated by the street crowd. +244,000 was the big number, led by private sector hiring. 9% unemployment.
So now the question front and center in my cranium is whether this number will be looked at as equity positive or negative. Friday's risk reaction was more positive as equities and risk in general was better bid. There is however the potential that this 'good' number will be looked at as equity negative as it puts more doubt on a potential QE3 program.
As discussed last week, we are closely watching the dollar index, the EUR/USD and the USD/CHF for clues about the durability of last week's dollar rally. Should the dollar rally remain, we think risk could come better offered…and in hindsight last week's commodity bath will have been a great leading tell.