Morning Market Thougths July 11

  • Spanish 10yr sub 7%. FinMins agreed on an outline for Spain’s €100B bailout plan and Draghi hinted at more rate cuts. However, Germany’s Weidmann said bailout rules have been weakened; ESM injunction could pose a risk to markets; Schauble said EZ nations need to deal with their own problems and Euro-area in a very tense situation.
  •   SPX traded lower all day and briefly tested its 50dma. Volumes improved to 6.1B shrs vs 5.1B previous day. Risk large for sale with SP1/TY1 -90bp, Cycl/Def -97bp, CSUSBETA -192bp, RTY -120bp, SOX -228bp, VIX +423bp.
  • Commodities hit with Crude -234bp, Copper -115bp, Gold -122bp, Silver -226bp. Norway ended its energy strike and Chinese imports fell.Industrials the worst supersector with CMI -9% on reduced guidance (JOY -5%, IR -4%, TXT -4% in sympathy).
  • Industrials and Materials traded weak….all in line with a stronger dollar.
  • The stronger the dollar the more U.S. large cap stocks will suffer.  Look at CAT yesterday…no good for the bulls
  • For the rest of the charts please watch the morning video

 

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