Morning Thoughts December 19

we remain of the opinion that a year-end rally stands a chance. At the current standpoint it is difficult to foresee the S&P 500 move above the 1300 mark
the S&P 500 chart is showing two inverted hammers in a row on the daily chart, and that right at the 50% retracement line of the most recent rally. there is hope here for a snap higher, but if we fail below last Wednesday's lows that hope is gone. (see chart below)
As such we remain long some SPY and FDX for bucket 2
the etf 'TLT' is displaying a narrowing trading range. Bonds should start to make a move in either direction at some point in the coming weeks and TLT is a decent vehicle for that trade, once a breakout occurs. (see chart below)
commodities keep moving lower and that is a) deflationary and b) a show of lack of economic growth. (see chart below)