Beware: Stocks seasonal weakness into mid-December
After displaying traditional seasonal strength into late November and possibly very early December, stocks this year again may see some weakness into the middle part of December. Tactically this may offer active investors and traders a chance to take some longs off the table, possibly even short the indices after a confirmed bearish reversal, only […]
What to Expect From the S&P 500 Into Year-End
Fund managers and investors alike are asking themselves whether the year-to-date highs for the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY) are in the past or whether a Santa Claus rally could push us to marginal higher highs. While market breadth is about as weak as I have ever seen it by some measures, a glimpse at seasonal […]
The German DAX and that pesky 200 day moving average
Looking back at the gyrations of the German Dax index this year shows what a roller coaster it has been. While I shy away from using simple, single-factor models or analyses when it comes to markets, the key line in the sand for the Dax in 2015 has been a closely watched one: the 200-day simple […]
Profit from the options expiration rally
The monthly options expiration rally phenomena with a few exceptions has worked out like a charm yet again in 2015. The trade is simple, buy stocks at the beginning of the week and sell into options expiration Friday or the following Monday. The strategy works extremely well and on months when it doesn’t work it […]
Serge Explains The Thanksgiving Trade
Thanksgiving week tends to be positive for markets, especially the Nasdaq 100. Black Friday shopping spree gives retailers a lift. Lower equities trading volume in Thanksgiving week tends to mean less volatility and a floating higher of stocks. The Nasdaq 100 can be bought with an ETF for a near-term trade opportunity.
Nasdaq 100 up-gap filled. Apple follows-through lower, as forecasted
Last Thursday I posted this chart of the Nasdaq 100, forecasting a gap fill could be nearby. By the close the following day (Friday) this gap fill had fully taken place, netting us and The Steady Trader subscribers huge profits. I posted this chart of Apple last Tuesday…indicating we could soon see a flush lower. […]
Stock market update after last week’s sell-off
After the sharp October and early November rally US stocks last week finally took a breather and broadly closed lower in what so far from the bigger picture looks to be an orderly pullback. If we dig a little deeper under the surface however last week’s drop also caused some decent technical damage that may […]
UPDATE: Closing S&P 500 put options for 50% gain
Last Thursday, November 5, I discussed the morbidly overbought readings of the benchmark S&P 500 index and laid out a trade to buy put options for a mean-reversion trade lower. Specifically I said that I was buying January 2016, $211 strike put options on the popular and very liquid S&P 500 ETF (SPY:arcx) for $6 […]
Serge talks year-end rally odds and thin market breadth on BNN
Will stocks see a further melt-up into year-end? The big question from here on into year-end is whether fund manager performance anxiety will win the tug of war, i.e. them having to buy stocks to chase the rally, or whether the awful market breadth that is backed by economic gravity (growth data continues to slow) […]
Beware of chasing European indices higher
Euro Stoxx 50 is up 10% over the past three weeks Rally has pushed the Euro Stoxx 50 back toward defined line of resistance Active investors would be wise to adapt and “buy the dips, fade the rips” Weeks-long rally in the Dax has taken it back to 50-day MA and line of resistance Traders […]