Morning Thoughts January 12
Welcome back to the wolf pack. This morning's big gap up (which as I type this is almost evaporating) is being embraced by long-only managers in Europe. Let that be a flashing warning signal to us…always, always fade long-only managers in Europe (and in the U.S. for that matter), Futures overnight bumped up at the […]
First Order Of Business Today
As first order of business today we will close the remainder of our Bucket 2 long position in FDX for profits. Industrials have acted well and should at the very least be due for a pullback along with the rest of the market…after which theuy may be buyable again..or not.
Portfolio Holdings January 12
87% cash (mistyped earlier) Symbol Open D Direction Sectors Avg Entry Stop Target 1 Target 2 Closed P Closed D Notes FDX 12/16/2011 long Indu 85.1 80 90 90.3 12-Jan closed 1/3 at flat on 1/9 for risk management SBUX puts 3-Jan long April 45 strike puts Cons Cyc 2.76 […]
FBR – Vertical Move Calls For Mean Reversion
In simplified terms Sir Isaac Newton’s law of universal gravitation states that ‘what goes up must come down.’ He of course was referencing physical objects, yet I often observe similar phenomena in the stock market. These moves in the stock market however are more of the mean-reversion kind, where investors get too giddy and push […]
Natural Gas – A Trader’s Delight
Yesterday, natural gas futures dropped to a six-week low in New York as forecasts for more moderate temperatures (less demand for the heating fuel) caused traders to sell. As such I thought it would be worth taking a look at natural gas from a technical perspective to see whether any trading opportunities can be found. […]
JCP – Better Technical Resistance 10% – 18% Higher
Department store operator/retailer J.C. Penney’s (JCP) fall from grace in recent years has been well documented. The analyst community’s seriously feisty opinions on both sides of the stock is almost Apple-esque (AAPL), which is a testament to how broad an audience is following this story. The longer-term chart shows the stock’s dramatic 85.00% fall from […]
Morning Thoughts Sept 11
As stated yesterday morning, since we have come within 1.25 points of reaching our next upside target at 1440 on the S&P 500, we have gone back to market neutral for the time being. We must now measure how any consolidation looks like. A shallow pullback with good support could easily push the S&P to […]
EUR/USD at 200 SMA
From the macro picture GDP has been slowing since the previous 2012 equity highs in April. Now EUR/USD just hit the 200 day simple moving average which may act as some resistance at the very least.
Morning Market Thougths July 11
Spanish 10yr sub 7%. FinMins agreed on an outline for Spain’s €100B bailout plan and Draghi hinted at more rate cuts. However, Germany’s Weidmann said bailout rules have been weakened; ESM injunction could pose a risk to markets; Schauble said EZ nations need to deal with their own problems and Euro-area in a very tense […]
Charts And Thoughts For The Week Ahead
It was a tricky week of trading last week. As we head into the new week let’s look at some charts for perspective; The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 left outside weeks on their weekly charts while the Russell 2000, the transports and financials had inside weeks. Both types of candles are potentially bullish, but […]