Morning Thoughts June 5
3 headlines that made some noise in PM yesterday were 1) S&P saying 1-In-3 chance of Greece exiting EuroZone (so somewhat negative) 2) ECB’s Coeure pointing to banks should have direct access to funds from EFSF and ESM (small +ve) and 3) chatter IMF head Lagarde is endorsing additional ECB easing at this week’s policy […]
Morning Thoughts January 5
In the two trading sessions so far this year we have simply digested the big up-gap from Tuesday morning. Overnight tonight futures quickly dipped below yesterday's low and after a very strong ADP employment report are right now near the unchanged line compared to yesterday's close at 4PM ET. Yesterday's session was marked by strong […]
Close-Up Chart of the S&P 500
You're looking at a four day chart of the S&P 500 futures contract (the S&P 500 itself looks exactly the same). Note the downtrend line in red, should we break through there nicely we will see 1290/1300 soon. Also note the still unfilled portion of the gap from Tuesday left below (blue zone)
Dollar Index Remains Better Bid
After consolidating abobe the 79 level for a while the index finally rallied hard the past two days and by so doing has decoupled its inverse relationship to stocks for now. It's important to keep watching, although at some point the inverse relationship is likely to resume. Whether the dollar index will come down or […]
Bucket 2: New Trade
Just bought some FXE for a quick Bucket 2 trade. The Euro is immediate-term oversold here…time for a little pop
S&P 500 Sectors – Best Bet Into Year-End
With just four short trading weeks left in the year I thought we’d take a look at how the S&P 500 sectors are faring and what they may look like going into year-end. Out of the nine sectors in the S&P 500 that I am tracking using the SPDR Sector ETFs, seven of them are […]
Dollar Holds Clues To Direction Of Equities
One of the key indices I always have front and center on my six screens is the dollar index. The direction of the dollar gives us invaluable clues as to the state of monetary and fiscal policies (or at least the perception thereof) and global risk asset appetites. Allow me to first briefly discuss some […]
Three Stocks To Avoid In October
The month of October tends to have its spooky aspects not only as it relates to All Hallow’s Eve but also in the financial markets. Simply by looking at the monthly absolute changes (both increases and decreases) in the VIX volatility index in October it’s clear that investors are often in for a ride. Positioning […]
Morning Thoughts June 4
Risk was large for sale across the board on Friday with weaker data globally and funding stresses in Europe. Volumes were heavy at 8.3bln shrs (+31% v 5d avg & +18% v 10 & 20d avgs) China PMI weakest in 5mos (Crude -380bp, Copper -131bp, Gold +405bp) * Euro-area unemployment reached record 11% * US […]
Flat SPY
Just covered/bought back my short position in SPY I’ve had open for the past 1.5 weeks. Good trade and my S&P 500 target at 1276 was hit.