EUR/CHF…unsustainable
while structured products desks all over are likely busy with bullish EUR/CHF notes, risk manager minds understand this chart is unsustainable. Something will give and those who bought the bull structures will once again be left holding the bag. And so the game goes on…
Into the weekend
A slow drip lower today and I remain with my 1/3 short positio in SPY and almost all cash. One would expect some sort of bounce near the 200 sma on the S&P 500 (right here right now) but that doesnt have to occur into a weekend. We must stay away when things are […]
Gap Update
There are so many air pockets (gaps) here any little wiggle will move us 20 handles in a hart beat. This here is the chart of the S&P 500 Emini Futures (March)…5 minute chart. Note the blue space and respect the massive potential for big moves here in coming hours and days.
Mid-Afternoon Update
Little to salivate over today in terms of pure price action so far….although we are dancing on the edge of a samurai knife here with a massive 30 point gap below and lots of air pockets above to fill as well. Something will give soon. The environment here remains lethal so stay away from it […]
Boring Tape…Patience is needed
Buying into a 11% rally (SPX) in just 6.5 trading sessions is bad risk/reward. the trading week thus far is boring and is requiring much patience. patience however will get rewarded if we exercise discipline. at this stage our portfolio is fairly flat and we are looking for a little pause/pullback of this rally. until […]
Update on CSCO
our bucket 3 holding in CSCO remains acting well…which is easy in this type of bear market rally, so no selfglorification here. the weekly chart shows resistance right here right now. ditto on the daily chart…the 200 moving average right here…right now the long term target level for us is near $22…but i reiterate…LONG-TERM
A 11% Rally INTO Earnings Season…
…this makes it just a little…or maybe alot…more difficult for companies to rally significantly THROUGH earnings seson. it's something to keep in mind as we are setting up for JPM and GOOG to report tomorrow. what are we doing? trimming off some of our long bucket 3 inventory in CSCO and feeding it to the […]
sold short a little SPY into the close here …
…for a quick bucket 2 try
Morning Thoughts October 12 2011
After an out of the gate rally on Monday that lasted all day and closed at its highs, Tuesday was marked by some hand sitting as major U.S. equity indices digested the massive 9% gains in the case of the S&P 500 of the past six trading days. The Russell 2000 much like the S&P […]
Banks at important near-term resistance zone
banks are running into initial resistance her after a massive rally off last week's lows. Stocks like MS are up 30% off the lows and the BKX and XLF are up about 12% and coming into their 50 day moving average and resistance line. some consolidation here would be healthy before then possibly heading higher […]