Morning Thoughts June 18
US equity indices posted 3rd week of gains in 4 & continued to progress from successful 200dma support tests of recent weeks, taking all back comfortably into positive territory YTD. Safety bid was the most evident theme within index action. SPX outperformed higher beta peers very significantly on the week. Activity levels remained extremely depressed, […]
Afternoon Update
Let’s get right to the point; As I offered this morning, with a big options expiration day ahead of us tomorrow and everyone focused on Greece over the weekend this is a low probability trading environment at least until Monday. I will be taking the day off tomorrow out of pure discipline not to trade […]
Thoughts on Europe post Greek election
Here are a couple of thoughts from Credit Suisse that I think are particularly interesting and noteworthy; ‘There is apparent momentum towards a European Redemption Fund. Under this proposal, Euro-area states would progressively roll their government debt in excess of 60% of GDP into a fund jointly backed by all member states. The debt would […]
Morning Thoughts June 14
SPX traded lower all afternoon and closed just off lows. 1300 never tested. Volumes remained muted, down 10% v 10d avg at just over 6bln shrs. 9/10 super sectors lower with Energy, Mats, Cons Disc all down over 100bp (Telcos +7bp). Signs of shorting in Energy in particular. Moody’s downgrades, Spanish bailout details, and the […]
A technical peek at the Nasdaq
In the early innings of 2012 the Nasdaq was the trend-setter and place to be for momentum investors and adrenaline- junkie-traders alike. I cautioned investors for much of the rally that such a vertical move especially when more or less based on one stock (Apple) will at the very least mean-revert over time. I further […]
Morning Thoughts June 13
Things are changing here…besides the selloff after the Spain bank bailout note this: German 10-yr yields 1.504%, highest since May 16; EUR/USD at $1.2517 after falling to two-year low of $1.2288 on June 1; Spain 10-yr 6.67% after yesterday reaching euro-era high of 6.834% Movement in bunds and EUR/USD are “warning signs that Germany simply […]
A look at world markets – where we stand
While we’ve had a good amount of economic data points out this week likely the most watched print is out tomorrow (Friday) morning: the May employment report. Meanwhile we remain in an environment that is littered with headlines and rumors, any of which can quickly move major stock indices 1%. Monetary policy hawks and doves […]
Morning Thoughts May 30
Well off lows – volumes better by 24% vs. Fri, but Friday was the LOWEST volume day of the year (yesterday’s volume 14% below 10day ave) – technically nowhere – macro was bad and Spain fell to another 9yr low, but markets held (definitely a win). We rallied after 10am EST on chatter ECB could […]
Morning Thoughts May 29
SPX closed Friday near lows on extremely thin trading ahead of the 3 day weekend. Volumes were down 35% vs the 5day avg at just 4.8bln shrs. Market clung to hopes that Merkel is considering debt sharing plan. Germany has reportedly developed a 6 step plan for growth for struggling Euro Zone members. However, S&P […]
Morning Thoughts May 25
Directionless – volumes down 10% DoD (-7% vs 10day ave) – quieting down as head to 3 days weekend – SPX rallied late day (and regained day’s VWAP) on headlines Italy PM Monti reit support for euro bonds and said “hopeful Italy can move Germany to accept actions for the greater good of the EU”. […]