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Two Key Charts From 2011
The dollar index. The story this year has been the continued inverse relationship between the dollar and risk assets. After selling off in the early part of the year the dollar has overcome significant headwinds and showed resilient strength that looks promising for further continuation upward. The dollar has gone nowhere in 2011 if we […]
Bucket 2 Trade Idea: SBUX
Note the up-trending channel in Starbucks (SBUX) since 2009. We are not at the top of it and are slowing down. At the very least one would expect a pullback to the low $40s or below for a little mean-reverting trade. We may sell far out of the money calls at the beginnig of the […]
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Morning Thoughts December 21
Our cautious stand on the short side (very few short positions) paid off yesterday and as suspected a rally arrived that left serious wedgies on many who piled into fresh shorts on Monday. While anything is possible in this tape it does look likely for stocks to rise further in the next few weeks. On […]
Portfolio Holdings Dec 21
85% Cash Bucket 2 Symbol Open D Direction Sectors Avg Entry Stop Target 1 FDX 12/16/2011 long Indu 85.1 80 90 SPY 15-Dec long INDEX MMM 9-Dec long Indu 81.73 77.5 85 Bucket 3 Symbol Open D Direction Sectors Avg Entry Stop Target 1 […]
Above the downtrend channel now
So far this morning the S&P 500 has broken above its 12 day downtrend channel…as have many other stock indices both stateside and in Europe:
Our 24 Hour Game Plan
As of right now equities are up between 3% and 4% on the day. Rather than piling into new Bucket 2 longs here today we will wait and see if we can buy some tomorrow morning into a little dip. We will be intersted in buying some EAT for a Bucket 2 try tomorrow. In […]
Morning Thoughts December 20
No changes in the portfolio yesterday…85% cash. Just a couple of charts for perspective: Last line of defense for equities here…on the S&P 500 we are at the 61.8% retracement of the latest rally. If we fail below 1200 it will become incrementally more difficult to not fall into the abyss soon. The German Dax […]
Down-Trending Channel Still In-tact
15 minute 10 day chart of the downtrending channel on the S&P 500. If we remain in the channel and head lower 180-1190 can easily be reached in coming days. If we break to the upside of the channel 1240 should be possible.