new SPX support focus area
SPX 1220-1230 support…that was the breakout level from last week given current volatility however support may not come until 1200…phsycological level buy fins on pullback transports and fins had clean breakouts last week our base case is to see a very choppy sideways movement for the next 3-6 months before ultimately resolving lower […]
important charts: transports, banks
two important charts to keep in mind are the banks (BKX) and the transports (IYT). note the bkx is right at resistance and looking precarious to break higher. if and when it does so we want to be front and center taking advantage by adding MS and BLK long. the transports (IYT) has already broken […]
Morning Thoughts Tuesday October 25
The fifteen day rally in stocks has lifted the S&P 500 just about fourteen percent and managed to squeeze out a close above the 1250 mark but right at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement line from the May to August downdraft. I showed this chart in yesterday’s morning note and after yesterday’s rally we are smack […]
shorted CAT
we are short CAT Jan 100 strike calls. one could also short the stock, it's just not the same payoff diagram. today's rally in the stock was nice but it also took the stock into good resistance. for an overbought tape this looks like a decent setup to the short side…Bucket 2
UA potential breakout candidate
the chart of UA looks interesting. on the hourly chart below note a 50% retracement that held and now a potential breakout above the downtrend line (red straight line). given the loftz levels the broader market trades at we are not interested in doing anything here but it is a good stock to watch. a […]
just sold the rest of our B3 long position in CSCO
it's a good day for taking profits in longs, evenin Bucket 3. we will buy CSCO again for a Bucket 3 long, but not until we see the broader market correct significantly. let them have inventory if they want it this badly. just feeding the ducks so to speak.
CAT at important resistance
after announcing earnings this morning CAT is running into an important resistance area near $92-$94. a little further up lurkes the 200 sma (red line) and the 61.8% retracement area. we are looking at a potential short-side try for bucket 2 here. will keep you posted.
dollar index update
note the key level at which the dollar index is coming to now…: 1) 61.8% fibonacci retracement level 2) 200 day simple moving average 3) breakout level from september …we want to go long some dollar index (UUP) at some point soon…just not yet right this minute
Morning Thoughts Monday October 24
Options expiration Friday ended up being everything it is hyped up to be: volatile, fairly unpredictable, and for most not worth trading. After it was all set and done however stocks rallied into the close and finished at their highs for the day and week. Given the wide resistance zone we currently find ourselves in […]
Apple keeps acting punky
Apple is coming into an important level of support here at the 50 day moving average and 50% retracement of the move off the early October lows. We remain short the Jan 500 strike calls.