early morning chart: eur/usd
the eur/usd this morning so far is putting in a reversal and displaying a long tail above its head (bearish if it closes this way). also note that this is occuring right between the 50% and 61.8% fibonacci retracement of the latest swing from the late August highs to the early October lows. if the […]
smells, looks, feels like…but is it?
when options expire every third friday of the month funny things happen. things that can trap investors and traders alike…and possibly ruin their weekend. such a day is today…or at least it seems to be… the chart below says it all…hourly chart of the SPX. if we get a 'breakout fakeout' it would give us […]
Morning Thoughts October 21
The trading range remains the same…very tight given the current volatility…and boring…and dangerous to bet in either direction until we get a clear directional breakout. today is october options expiration and this weekend the eurocrats will hold another one of their all important meetings. all of that makes today a bad day for decision making […]
closing MS trade…taking full profits
we just closed our bucket 2 long in MS…taking full profits after taking half off on oct 19th: Closed the second half and rest of MS long at $17.10… We are at the top of the range and options expiration is squeezing the tape. Upside is limited and downside on MS may have room to […]
still within the tight trading range…
news out or europe…they are planning on agreeing and planning…huh?…right, but the news is lifting the tape never the less. it is what it is and we must play what is, or at least make a conscious decision not to participate. that tight range on the S&P 500 is 1190 – 1230 and they are […]
boring as boring gets
a super boring day here so far today…we remain stuck in that little trading range on the upeper end of the larger 1100 – 1230 range. for what it's worth we think the market trades a little lower here in coming days but we need to see some sort of confirmation trade out of this […]
short calls on AAPL
this morning we sold (wrote) january 500 strike calls on AAPL..that's a little more than 26% out of the money from where the stock traded when we opened the trade. 26% out of the money three months out is a pretty good buffer even for AAPL should AAPL begin to slide lower we will likey […]
Morning Thoughts October 20
It was another consolidation day yesterday…right at the top of the trading range and below 1230. news out of Europe remains very inconsistent, not helping uncertainty BLK above $160, ZUMZ above $22.50 are nice Bucket 2 long ideas its options expiration week, this usually leads to more volatility into Friday as a reminder for the […]
AAPL interesting topping pattern
it's dangerous to bet against a steamroller like AAPL and right here right now we don't want to do anything yet. but do note the gap up, dojis, and then gap down formation of the last five trading sessions. our internal discussions thus far have evolved around selling out of the money calls…but still just […]
BLK above $160 looks interesting
another financial firm with an interesting chart setup is Blackrock (BLK). it's nothing immediate here but if and when it were to give us a solid daily close above the $160 area it may provide a solid Bucket 2 long trade.