- A choppy session yesterday looks to continue today.
- We remain in an environment where anything but quick intraday scalping doesn't work…so we choose to remain in cash by 90-95% and wait for better setups.
- Politicians remain holding the wild cards and the tape will continue to react to each new development on that front.
- The S&P 500 remains at a critical juncture of the July downtrend line and the 200 day simple moving average…see the chart below
- Three possible scenarios here into year-end: 1) we break above this resistance only to break right back down, find resistance, and then head higher. That would be the so called path of maximum frustration. 2) we break lower from here (that's the easy trade and the easy trade doesn't often work). 3) we rally straight up into 1300 and above soon, on some amazingly positive news out of Europe.
- How do we approach all of this? we will have to measure the tape once the next move comes…in whatever direction it is and test it for strength, participation..volume…all of that.
- Until then, sit on cash and wait on the sidelines for better probability opportunities.
