S&P 500 Double Top?
Given that exactly one week ago on October 5th the S&P 500 failed to pierce through its September highs and has since retraced about, 2.50% some have asked themselves whether the charts are flashing a classic ‘double-top’ sell signal. In short, at first glance a double top is plausible, yet if one digs a little […]
Morning Thoughts July 12
Charts speak more than words, so lets look at a few of them this morning. Overall much has been thrown at equities here and they are just slowly moving lower, no crash. This leads me to think we may have a little relief upside here soon for a few days. But as always, we need […]
Morning Thoughts June 12
SPX opened on highs and closed on lows on heavy volume (126bp move down). Despite EUR 100bn bank bailout, IBEX closed -54bp (fell 500bp+ intraday) & 10yr +30bp to 6.466. Also weighing on sentiment, Moody’s is expected to announce downgrades to 17 global banks this week (TTN). Despite heavy closing volume, overall volumes were -8% […]
Afternoon Update – Please Read
A couple of thoughts as we head into the afternoon session. After a choppy early morning stocks found a thus far low for the day just around 10:45 am and at the 1305 – 1308 support level on the S&P 500. That support level also coincides with the 38.3% retracement of the equity bounce in […]
Bucket 2: Profit Taking
Just closed our long position in FDX at $90.30. Brings our cash levelsback to about 85%
Morning Thoughts January 12
Welcome back to the wolf pack. This morning's big gap up (which as I type this is almost evaporating) is being embraced by long-only managers in Europe. Let that be a flashing warning signal to us…always, always fade long-only managers in Europe (and in the U.S. for that matter), Futures overnight bumped up at the […]
First Order Of Business Today
As first order of business today we will close the remainder of our Bucket 2 long position in FDX for profits. Industrials have acted well and should at the very least be due for a pullback along with the rest of the market…after which theuy may be buyable again..or not.
Portfolio Holdings January 12
87% cash (mistyped earlier) Symbol Open D Direction Sectors Avg Entry Stop Target 1 Target 2 Closed P Closed D Notes FDX 12/16/2011 long Indu 85.1 80 90 90.3 12-Jan closed 1/3 at flat on 1/9 for risk management SBUX puts 3-Jan long April 45 strike puts Cons Cyc 2.76 […]
FBR – Vertical Move Calls For Mean Reversion
In simplified terms Sir Isaac Newton’s law of universal gravitation states that ‘what goes up must come down.’ He of course was referencing physical objects, yet I often observe similar phenomena in the stock market. These moves in the stock market however are more of the mean-reversion kind, where investors get too giddy and push […]
Natural Gas – A Trader’s Delight
Yesterday, natural gas futures dropped to a six-week low in New York as forecasts for more moderate temperatures (less demand for the heating fuel) caused traders to sell. As such I thought it would be worth taking a look at natural gas from a technical perspective to see whether any trading opportunities can be found. […]