When I last chimed in on Apple (AAPL) on May 28th (here: http://investorplace.com/2013/05/apple-stay-bullish-above-430/) the stock had shown some positive signs, yet not enough to make me a compelled buyer.
More specifically I wrote that: ‘As long as Apple can hold above $430, it favors an eventual push higher past the 100-day moving average and early May highs near $465. This could then lead to a move up to near the $500-$510 area over time.’ Fast forward to today and this push past the 100 day simple moving average never came to pass as the stock yet again ran out of steam and eventually crumbled lower.
A quick look at the long-term chart of Apple (AAPL) reveals that the recent renewed down-turn in the stock now leaves it looking untouchable from the long-side, at least for the time being.
I first showed this chart on May 28th and updated it again today. The consolidation phase in the second half of 2011 set a good support level for the stock, but also acted as the last base camp before the vertical incline into the 2012 pop and drop formation. From here the bottom of the formation has notable next support around the $360 mark.
The daily chart looks just as lousy as the longer-term chart and again shows the significance, for now, of the 100 day simple moving average (blue line). If and when the stock can throw itself back above that hurdle I will look at it again from the long side. Until then, gravity seems to still want to have its way and a re-test of the April 19th lows near $385 seems to be near certain. Maybe the stock bounces there but if it fails to do so then $360 should usher in pretty swiftly. As the saying goes, the trend is your friend, and that trend remains lower.
As a side note, I perform a monthly little sentiment study on Apple (AAPL), which for the first time in years in the month of June is showing investors caring less about the stock. This emotional drain out of the stock should over the longer term be exactly what the doctor ordered so that the stock can again begin to focus and react around the top and bottom line sensitive topics in the company.
For those interested in something special, here’s a long-term logarithmic chart of Apple (AAPL)…pretty much sums it up.