Morning Thoughts January 3

Welcome back to the wild pack.  Instead of rushing right back into things let us give this tape a couple of days to settle and let everyone warm up first.  Most players are a little out of practice today so hitting a few balls on the driving range rather than storming right to the first tee is wise advice.

We moved to a better video platform and purchased a great video editing software…expect clearer and more professional videos as of this morning.

Our theme for 2012?  No one knows, no one ever knows at the beginning of the year what the year will bring.  Ridiculous forecasts from brokers are all over the place today. 

Our advice: ignore all of them and just trade the tape that is and not the one that some CFA certified academic told you will happen.  He/she has no clue but has a job of generating more trading or other revenue for the bank by discussing what he sees in the crystal ball.

The santa rally we discussed so much did arrive in the end…although likely much too late for any real alpha seekers or beta chasers for that matter to participate in.  That may in part explain this morning's rally.

The mother-chart (S&P 500) is improving:

The santa rally took us right back into the 200 day moving average and the downtrend from July.  Also note the inverse head and shoulders pattern in place that would work us to an ultimate target near 1365 should it work out textbook.

If you are interested in the Russell 2000 please keep a close eye on the 770 level.  If and when the index manages to break through to the upside of there higher levels are likely and that massive crash everyone is talking about likely a little further down the road.


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