Morning Thoughts June 27

  • Decent day but volume remains weak – lightly moved higher from 11am ET lows – Started to rally after headlines “German lawmakers told ESM seniority to be discussed at EU summit” – also good to see we didn’t sell off after 3pm headline “Egan Jones ‘downgraded’ Germany”. Weak macro data was ignored- Richmond Fed Manufacturing bad; -3 (cons +2). Drop in new orders (-12 v +1 pr). June consumer confidence also missed exp. 62 (c 63). Lowest since January.
  • Please watch this morning’s video for detail analysis of the S&P 500.  We could fill Monday’s down gap…that’s about a 50 bps move from where we closed yesterday.
  • A couple of macro charts down below, they are also discussed in greater detail in the morning video
  • Note the insane positive correlation in most asset classes on the first chart.
  • The dollar index trading inversely to the SPX is historically not a given.  The inverse correlation currently is so strong because the usd is being used as a funding currency
  • This simply makes the dollar index an even more important
  • And the third chart is simply showing how powerful MACD can be in forecasting weakening trends.







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