It was an uneventful start to the week on Monday as traders understandably weren’t looking to take on much risk ahead of this week’s big economic data points and some participants were absent due to a Jewish holiday.
Futures in many markets have been chopping back and forth in tight ranges in recent days, and I fully expect this to continue into Thursday, when the US Federal Open Market Committee finally meets to make its long-awaited decision on whether to raise interest rates or stay on hold.
Fed fund futures are currently pricing in about a 30% chance of a rate hike.
To yours truly, however, and through the lens of risk-management traders and active investors it would be wise to assume a 50% chance of a Fed rate hike, which is to say they should not bet on a certain outcome. The better and easier trades will most likely be set up in the days after Thursday’s interest rate decision.
Read the full analysis HERE