Apple above key resistance, now what?

On July 25th I discussed here ( that with Apple Inc (AAPL) pushing past the $430 area it hurdled past an important point: “the $430 level is a confluence zone made up of the May downtrend line and the 50-day and 100-day simple moving averages.”  I further mentioned on the same day that by overcoming the $430 area, the stock also opened up the gates at least toward $465, which has been tough resistance since March.

Fast forward to today, and with yesterday’s continued push higher Apple Inc (AAPL) managed to close even past the $465 line, at $469.45.  Momentum remains on the side of the stock and a next resistance area is the 200 day simple moving average (red line), which currently comes in near $475, or just 1.30% from yesterday’s closing print.  Considering the stock has now rallied more than 20% in twenty-nine trading days, it may be time for a little breather before ultimately pushing higher again.  How high do I think this cult stock will eventually rise on the back of the momentum push past $430?  The area around $500 – $520 looks to be reachable within the time-frame of two to three months barring any significant set-backs.  This price area would also coincide with the 38.20% Fibonacci retracement of the entire sell-off from the September 2012 highs down to the April lows, i.e. a good medium-term resistance point.

aapl daily chart

Close-up, on the 60 minute chart of Apple Inc (AAPL), note that  the rally off the June lows has now reached the same distance as the rally off the April lows did, right before it ended.  Momentum, as measured by the MACD oscillator however is not yet flashing any negative divergence versus price, which indicates that at least somewhat marginal further upside is possible, maybe toward the $475 – $480 area before a healthy near-term consolidation phase may set in.

aapl 60 minute chart



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