Morning Thoughts November 17

Santa's sleigh more ore less crashed in the last hour yesterday and overnight.  So, that makes today's session potentially the most interesting/important one in almost one week. 

I shared the below chart of the pennant formation in the S&P 500 yesterday but it is worth pointing out again.  Given the broad based media attention of this it is unlikely we will just break one way and run in that direction.  Rather we think it is more likely we chop around first, fake everyone out and then find a direction.

Global growth fairy where art thou?  See the chart of Copper below…yes it is a global macro growth tell and it is off 20% for the year…

Note gold is down about 1.5% right now as of this writing…'which is one of those things you see when a liquidation happens, and all anyone wants is the currency to pay their bills.'  We will remain in our Bucket 3 long position in GDX however….unless things dramatically change.  It's a little of a hedge for us but also a long-term position that we don't want to get too emotional about for now.

Other than that we are waiting for some sort of more sustainable move (more than just a few minutes) in order to allocate some capital to Bucket 2 trades.  There has been absolutely no reason to trade individual stocks for directional moves based on technicals for Bucket 2 for the past few weeks and certainly not the past few days.  That may change soon but until then we remain observing and learning on the sidelines.

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